Прогностическое моделирование потребности в специализированной медицинской помощи детскому населению арктической зоны Республики Саха (Якутия): ОРГАНИЗАЦИЯ ЗДРАВООХРАНЕНИЯ

Сардана Анатольевна Евсеева; Василий Иванович Орел; Ольга Валерьевна Калашникова; Саргылана Гаврильевна Боескорова; Алена Михайловна Никитина; Лена Николаевна Афанасьева; Снежана Спиридоновна Слепцова; Спиридон Спиридонович Слепцов; Татьяна Егоровна Бурцева; Вячеслав Григорьевич Часнык

doi:10.56871/MHCO.2026.98.14.001

Predictive modeling of the demand for specialized medical care for children in the Arctic zone Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)

HEALTHCARE ORGANIZATION

Sardana A. Evseeva Yakut Science Center for Complex Medical Problems https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9854-8220
Vasily I. Orel Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6098-3449
Olga V. Kalashnikova Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8683-4270
Sargylana G. Boeskorova Republican Hospital No. 1 — National Center of Medicine named after M.E. Nikolaev; North-Eastern Federal University named after M.K. Ammosov https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2296-9595
Alena M. Nikitina Yakutsk Republican Clinical Hospital https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9149-1359
Lena N. Afanasyeva North-Eastern Federal University named after M.K. Ammosov; Ministry of Health of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2592-5125
Snezhana S. Sleptsova North-Eastern Federal University named after M.K. Ammosov https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0103-4750
Spiridon S. Sleptsov Yakut Science Center for Complex Medical Problems https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2482-2928
Tatiana E. Burtseva1 Yakut Science Center for Complex Medical Problems;North-Eastern Federal University named after M.K. Ammosov https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5490-2072
Vyacheslav G. Chasnyk Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5776-1490

Keywords:

modeling medical care air ambulance children teenagers Yakutia моделирование медицинская помощь санитарная авиация дети подростки Якутия

Abstract

Introduction.Elements of mathematical modeling are steadily employed in the system of practical healthcare and healthcare organization. They can be used as a tool for performance assessment, planning, forecasting, and calculating medical care needs.Aim —to evaluate the needs of the children’s population of the Arctic zone of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for specialized medical care until 2036 and the need for air ambulance until 2032.Materials and methods.To date, a unique database of medical and demographic data has been created in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for 36 districts and the republic as a whole since 2000. These data set will be used in calculating the population’s need for specialized medical care, as well as for the sake of territorial planning.Results and discussion.The article presents an attempt to model the need for specialized medical care for children in the Arctic zone of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) using predictive models by Gardner (1985). With the existing data of medical and demographic indicators alongside living standards of the population of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), the demand for specialized medical care for children and adolescents will remain at the average level for the current years.Conclusion.The elements of mathematical modeling make it possible to calculate the need for specialized medical care for children in the Arctic zone of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and can be actively used for territorial planning.

Author Biographies

Sardana A. Evseeva, Yakut Science Center for Complex Medical Problems

Cand. Sci. (Med.),
Senior Researcher

Vasily I. Orel, Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University

Dr. Sci. (Med.), Professor, Vice-
Rector for Academic Affairs, Head of the Department
of Social Pediatrics and Health Care Organization Faculty of Postgraduate and Continuing Professional Education, Honored Scientist of the Russian Federation

Olga V. Kalashnikova, Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University

Cand. Sci. (Med.),
Head of the Pediatric Department No. 3

Sargylana G. Boeskorova, Republican Hospital No. 1 — National Center of Medicine named after M.E. Nikolaev; North-Eastern Federal University named after M.K. Ammosov

Postgraduate Student, Department of Pediatrics and Pediatric Surgery, Medical Institute of the North-Eastern Federal University named after M.K. Ammosov; a Rheumatologist at the Cardiorheumatology, Department of the Pediatric Center of the State Agrarian University of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) “Republican Hospital No. 1 — the National Center of Medicine named after M.E. Nikolaev”

Alena M. Nikitina, Yakutsk Republican Clinical Hospital

Chief Physician, Yakutsk Republican Clinical Hospital

Lena N. Afanasyeva, North-Eastern Federal University named after M.K. Ammosov; Ministry of Health of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)

Dr. Sci. (Med.),Head of the Department of Oncology of the Medical Institute of theNorth-Eastern Federal University named after
M.K. Ammosov;Minister of Health of the Republic
of Sakha (Yakutia)

Snezhana S. Sleptsova, North-Eastern Federal University named after M.K. Ammosov

Dr. Sci. (Med.), Associate Professor, Head of the Department of Infectious
Diseases, Epidemiology and Dermatovenerology,
Deputy Director for Scientific Work of the Medical Institute

Spiridon S. Sleptsov, Yakut Science Center for Complex Medical Problems

Cand. Sci. (Biol.),
Associate Professor, Senior Researcher

Tatiana E. Burtseva1, Yakut Science Center for Complex Medical Problems;North-Eastern Federal University named after M.K. Ammosov

Dr. Sci. (Med.), Professor, Professor of the Department of Pediatrics and Pediatric Surgery at the Medical Institute, North-Eastern Federal University named after M.K. Ammosov; Head of the Laboratory, Yakut Science Center for Complex Medical Problems

Vyacheslav G. Chasnyk, Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University

Dr. Sci (Med.), Professor

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Predictive modeling of the demand for specialized medical care for children in the Arctic zone Republic of Sakha (Yakutia): HEALTHCARE ORGANIZATION. (2026). Medicine and Organization of Health Care, 11(1), 7-14. https://doi.org/10.56871/MHCO.2026.98.14.001

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